Sunday, August 2, 2020

Technical Analysis: What happened on Friday [July 31] The Short Term and Long Term Support Level on NIO Inc. (NIO)

NIO Inc. (NIO) has seen some recent action in the market and its shares closed at $11.94 on Friday July 31,2020. Overall the market was red but when stocks entered the green territory towards the end NIO was kept below $12. One reason might be the $12 contracts expiring on Friday and the big boys were in play to make sure that it stayed below $12. There was no negative news for Nio on Friday except for the China tensions which will have no effect on Nio stock as discussed on my previous post. Nio only operates in China market and China is the only country which is seeing a big rebound in the economy as most of the countries are still fighting covid-19. Nio will report record sales number tomorrow and shorts will be burned tomorrow for selling it on Friday. 

Long term investors will be rewarded if they hold this stock for long term. 

Nio will enter the bullish territory starting Monday.Once it breaks the $13 resistance it should rocket up to the previous high of $16. 

Why Plug Power, Bloom Energy, and FuelCell Energy Stocks Are All Moving Higher (Again)

So what
It turns out there is some other news in the alternative energy space that may be helping to fuel these stock price gains, and for that news, we turn to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). On June 29, the Department of Energy announced a new program to invest $100 million over five years "in two new DOE National Laboratory-led consortia to advance hydrogen and fuel cell technologies research and development (R&D)."  

Soon after that announcement came out, DOE announced that it will begin accepting requests for proposals from the industry on an apparently separate but related project to support the department's "H2@Scale" initiative to promote "large-scale, affordable hydrogen production, storage, distribution, and utilization across multiple sectors" -- worth $24 million. As DOE further explained, it will be looking for contractors able to help it with "advancing hydrogen fueling technologies for medium- and heavy-duty fuel cell vehicles," and also with "addressing technical barriers to hydrogen blending in natural gas."  

Now what
The $124 million up for grabs from these two DOE programs may not sound like a lot of money. But $124 million is nearly twice FuelCell's annual revenue ($69 million), about half of what Plug brings in in a year ($250 million), and even a pretty good chunk of Bloom Energy's annual sales ($795 million). In short, it's a prize worth winning for any of these three companies.

Proposals from would-be contractors on the $24 million contract, at least, are due by close of business on July 31. It's possible we could see above-average stock strength among fuel cell companies all the way up to when a winner is announced.


Saturday, August 1, 2020

cheapest electric vehicle in the US -- and it comes from China It's called the Kandi K27

Affordability is tough when it comes to electric cars. Even mass-market EVs are often just a little out of reach for the average car buyer, especially considering how much further a dollar stretches when it comes to a traditional car with an engine.

So, can Kandi and its K27 tempt you with an unusually low price? This is a Chinese electric car that will be the most affordable EV for sale in the US later this year. Kandi revealed the K27 alongside the more expensive K23 model on Wednesday and plans to showcase both cars during a virtual event on Aug. 18.

Kandi K23

The K27 costs just $19,999. Kandi promises it's a no-haggle, no-nonsense price. And that's before the $7,500 federal tax credit. That's cheap for any new car, but, well, the price is sort of reflected in the K27's looks.

Honestly, it looks like some sort of weird Smart and Mini Cooper combination. If it snaps necks, it'll be because onlookers are curious what the hell just passed them. We only have one photo of the interior, but it looks pretty no-frills as well. There's a tablet-style infotainment screen (with a blue display that looks bricked in the photo?) and a gear selector below. Next to it sits a dial for various modes. I wouldn't expect soft touch points or anything fancy, but it should check off the box for basic transportation.

NIO Price Target Analysis and its set to defy doomsters and open higher, levels to watch.

  • NYSE: NIO is set to end the week and the month on a positive note. 
  • Nio Inc's shares are seen as expensive while it remains unprofitable.
  • Lessons from Elon Musk's Tesla are promising for the firm. 

Is a market capitalization of around $14 billion rich for an electric vehicle company? Some analysts suggest that NYSE: NIO current valuation – with shares trading above $12 – is expensive. The primary reasoning for the downbeat assessment on Nio Inc - ADR stems from a basic business lacking – profitability.

However, it is essential to note that Nio, based in Shanghai, China, was founded only in late 2014 and may need more time to turn a profit. The largest EV firm, Tesla, struggled not only with income but also with cash flow. 

Nio shares were beaten more because of the china-US tensions. It should be noted that Nio don't sell cars in US and there profits come only from china markets. Whatever might happen between US and China it will have no effect on Nio china. Chinese people feel more anti-american than before which will help NIO over its rival Tesla. Like trump China wants them to buy more Chinese manufactured cars and there are more incentives for Nio than Tesla.

On the other hand, Nio has the backing of Beijing. Authorities may encourage locals to purchase the company's cars and thus create a national champion. Elon Musk's Tesla may be the market leader – but while it sells in China, the local rival may gain market share. 

Tense Sino-American relations may weigh on Nio's sales outside its home country, but the vast Chinese market allows ample room for growth. 

With all the above reasons I strongly feel Nio will reach $50 soon.

The next levels to watch are the weekly closing high of $12.70, followed by the mid-July peak of $14.09, and then by the high close of $14.90 achieved earlier in the month. The stretch target for bulls is $16.44, the 52-week high.

Support is found at Monday's low close of $11.69, followed by $11.09, a level recorded in the previous week. The psychologically significant $10 level is next.

Nio Inc - ADR has made a long journey from the 52-week low of $1.19 and is valued at over 11 times that price. 

5 Best Electric Car Stocks to Buy for the Next 10 Years

Electric car stocks are on fire this year. You might be wondering what's going on.

Recently the KraneShares Electric Vehicle and Future Mobility ETF (NYSEARCA:KARS) is up nearly 30%, versus a mere 5% gain for the S&P 500. This move comes on the back of optimism that rising consumer awareness, coupled with strengthening government support, will drive 36% growth in electric vehicle sales to record high levels in 2021.

While those numbers — a 30% gain for electric car stocks and a 36% rise in electric vehicle sales — may seem huge, this is just the beginning. The numbers will only get way bigger over the next 10 years.

The reality is that this is the beginning of the future of transportation. Diesel cars on their way out. Electric cars on their way in. Electric stocks are also picking up.

Over the next decade, this shift will only accelerate as battery tech improves driving ranges, battery charging infrastructure expands, consumer demand pivots, automobile production capacity makes a similar pivot, battery and electric vehicle prices come down, and public and private pressure to cut carbon emissions escalates. It’s a confluence of tailwinds that will spark a once-in-a-lifetime transportation revolution — and ultimately make electric vehicles ubiquitous by the end of the decade.

Today, electric vehicles only account for about 3% of all passenger cars.

Needless to say, the best of this growth narrative is yet to come … and the best of the rally in electric car stocks will happen over the next decade.

With that in mind, here are the five best electric car stocks to buy for the next 10 years:

  • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
  • Nio (NYSE:NIO)
  • Nikola Motors (NASDAQ:NKLA)
  • Arcimoto (NASDAQ:FUV)
  • Kandi Technologies (NASDAQ:KNDI)

Electric Car Stocks: Tesla (TSLA)

Electric Car Stocks: TSLA
Source: Sheila Fitzgerald / Shutterstock.com

The godfather of the electric vehicle industry, Tesla is and will remain one of the best electric car stocks to buy for the next 10 years.

In 2019, Tesla controlled about 16% of the global passenger electric vehicle market. That number is up from 8% in 2017, thanks to new cars and geographic expansion.

These two drivers will remain in place for the next several years. Tesla will launch the Model Y this year. Then the Cybertruck after that. Then more cars after that. At the same time, the company will continue to push deeper into Europe, establish a premium leadership position in China and eventually makes its way into Latin America.

Against the backdrop of all that growth, Tesla will continue to produce the best cars in the business, because the company has a huge lead when it comes to battery technology and autonomy. Concurrently, Tesla’s brand equity is second to none. That strong brand equity won’t be diluted anytime soon.

Tesla will remain the unparalleled leader of the consumer EV market for the next several years. As the market booms, so will Tesla’s revenues. And Tesla’s profits. And the TSLA stock price.

Nio (NIO)

Electric Car Stocks: NIO
Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com

Tesla’s little brother from China, Nio, is also one of the best electric car stocks to buy for the next 10 years.

The premium EV maker went in reverse in 2019. The Chinese auto market crumbled. Chinese EV sales plateaued. Demand for Nio’s vehicles plunged. The company’s losses widened. The balance drained cash.

But everything has changed in 2020.

China’s auto market is rebounding, with auto sales posting positive growth in April 2020 for the first time in 21 months. China’s EV sales are once again setting monthly record highs.

Nio’s vehicle deliveries doubled in both March and April, and are expected to rise more than 150% in the second quarter. The company’s adjusted net loss narrowed by more than 40% in the first quarter. And the balance sheet scored 7 billion yuan in financing from a group of strategic investors.

These favorable trends will persist for the next several years.

Population growth plus urbanization will drive auto market sales growth. Rising consumer awareness, falling prices, expanding charging infrastructure and increased government support will drive bigger EV sales growth.

New vehicle launches and increased production capacity will drive even bigger Nio sales growth. Economies of scale will kick in, and today’s losses will turn into tomorrow’s profits. NIO stock will fly higher.

All in all, investors should stick with NIO stock for the long haul. This is a potential multi-bagger in the making.

Nikola Motors (NKLA)

The newest electric car stock on Wall Street, Nikola Motors, made a splashy debut via a reverse merger in early June.

In a matter of days, NKLA stock soared from $30 to $90.

Why? Because this company has “Tesla of Trucks” written all over it.

In short, Nikola is a $23 billion next-generation vehicle maker. It’s leading the way in creating a new class of futuristic, zero-emission and cost-effective trucks. The company intends to first service the commercial market with electric and hydrogen delivery trucks, and then the consumer market with electric and hydrogen pick-up trucks.

If the company successfully executes against its opportunity to materially disrupt the trucking industry — and the company should be able to given its huge backing, technological advantages, strategic partnerships and hydrogen market leadership — then this could be a $100 billion company one day.

To that end, NKLA stock is one of the best electric car stocks to buy for the next 10 years.

Arcimoto (FUV)

Source: Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com

One of the more exciting electric car stocks in the market is that of $72 million, Oregon-based EV maker Arcimoto.

Arcimoto is all about three-wheel EVs. The company understands that the future of cars is not three wheels. But its bet is that three-wheel EVs have enough specialty use cases across the globe, that demand for these smaller, nimbler and cheaper vehicles will be quite robust.

And that sounds like the right bet to make.

Specifically, Arcimoto’s consumer-oriented product, the Fun Utility Vehicle (FUV), looks positioned to become a next-generation ATV of sorts. It will be the urban vehicle of choice.

Then there’s Arcimoto’s commercial-oriented products, the Deliverator and the Rapid Responder. The Deliverator is a three-wheel, compact delivery EV aimed at optimizing last-mile delivery logistics by improving speed and cutting costs. The Rapid Responder is a three-wheel, compact emergency EV aimed at enabling law enforcement, security and emergency services to more quickly and affordably respond to incidents.

Deliveries of FUV started in late 2019. Production of commercial cars will start in late 2020.

Across these various consumer and commercial verticals, Arcimoto’s potential is quite enormous. Much, much bigger than its current $72 million market cap implies.

Kandi Technologies (KNDI)

Source: buffaloboy / Shutterstock.com

Last, but not least, on this list of electric car stocks to buy for the next 10 years is Chinese EV maker and parts supplier Kandi Technologies.

Best known as the company which pioneered the EV battery swap model — which simply involves replacing an EV battery once it’s drained — Kandi was once considered a leader in China’s EV market. That was back in the early 2010s, when battery swapping was considered a necessity in a world full of EVs that took forever to charge and had limited driving ranges.

But, as EV technology has improved and charging times have dropped alongside rising driving ranges, many countries — including the U.S. — have entirely ditched the battery-swapping model.

China hasn’t. Instead, China is doubling down on its efforts to make the battery-swap model ubiquitous across the entire country through battery standardization.

Why? Because the battery-swap model is cheaper. Consumers don’t own their batteries. They rent the batteries. By removing the cost of battery ownership, the battery-swap model significantly lowers retail prices of EVs, which China hopes will promote mainstream adoption and help the country reach its ambitious sustainability targets.

In any event, all of that means that Kandi’s core technology is coming back into vogue in China. As it does over the next several years, Kandi’s growth narrative will reaccelerate and beaten-up KNDI stock — which has fallen from $20 to $3 in six years — will rebound with vigor.

Friday, July 31, 2020

NIO July 2020 sales estimates

Based on the data collected from public discussion forums, Nio press release we have consolidated  here. 

Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO (NYSE:NIO) said it delivered 3,740 vehicles in June, up 179% from a year ago, a record monthly total that powered a record quarterly total for the company as well. 

What NIO said

Here are the key points from NIO's statement.

  • NIO delivered 2,476 of its five-passenger ES6 SUVs in June, and 1,264 of its larger ES8 models. A year ago, in the ES6's first month of sales, it delivered 413 ES6s and 927 ES8s. 
  • For the second quarter, NIO delivered a total of 10,331 vehicles, up 191% from 3,553 in the second quarter of 2019. 
  • That result was arguably ahead of NIO's guidance. NIO said in May that investors should expect its deliveries to "more than double" in the second quarter from the year-ago period; they nearly tripled. 
  • Year to date through June, NIO delivered 14,169 vehicles. 

Overall NIO deliveries were 11,348 in 2018

Overall NIO deliveries were 20,565 in 2019

2019 Q1: 3,989

2019 Q2: 3,553

2019 Q3: 4,799

2019 Q4: 8,224

Covid-19 hurt NIO's momentum in early 2020

Jan 2020: 1,598

Feb 2020: 707

Mar 2020: 1,533

Apr 2020: 3,155

May 2020: 3,436

June 2020: 3,740

Li Bin has stated that current production capacity is 4,000 per month if supply chains have recovered from Covid-19. I'm going to guess NIO will deliver slightly more than their stated capacity for July and August.

July 2020: 4,150- 5500 (Note:July 18 NIO announced 50,000 cars sold., so July might come 4900 plus sales)

Aug 2020: 4,500-6000

My estimated deliveries to finish out 2020.

Sept 2020: 5,100 

Oct 2020: 5,500 

Nov 2020: 6,000

Dec 2020: 7,500

Data credit: Yahoo finance public forums.

If these estimates turn in to reality, NIO would deliver 48,000 cars in 2020 vs 20,565 in 2019 and 11,348 in 2018.

There are more positive news coming up in August and I am sure the stock will pick up speed and reach $16 by end of August first week. NIO is like investing in Baidu 5 years back, Nio has all the foundation built for it to compete with Tesla in China. Nio should be easily reaching $30 by end of this year. 

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

NIO BaaS is revolutionizing the Electric Vehicle world

Today, cnTechPost reported that NIO (NYSE:NIO) is planning to set up a battery asset management company in August. This move is part of the company’s plan to separate its vehicle and battery units, and should enable NIO to launch a battery-as-a-service (or BaaS) offering. The new company will be led by NIO Energy.

NIO’s battery swap technology
Currently, NIO offers battery swap technology as part of its broader BaaS strategy. This offering allows users to replace their empty batteries for charged ones, eliminating the time needed for charging. The service is currently free for NIO users.

NIO announced in May that it had completed 500,000 battery swaps. This news boosted the company’s and market participants’ confidence that the technology could work. 

NIO’s vision of renting batteries as an individual asset
In January, NIO chairman William Li said, “We consider that the separating consumption of vehicles and batteries based on battery swapping can benefit users through using battery packs that are chargeable, replaceable, updatable and recyclable. Battery will be rented to users an individual asset.”

With time, the initiative should do away with the need of owning a battery. Under the BaaS service, NIO plans to sell cars with the option of not owning the battery. Consumers may also opt to rent batteries, reducing their initial investment in owning a car. The option could also help them stay up to date with improvements in battery technology.

Financing for NIO’s battery asset management company
NIO is currently seeking financing for the company, and could bring in investments from large energy funds. cnTechPost reports that Contemporary Amperex Technology may be interested in investing in the initiative.