Friday, July 31, 2020

NIO July 2020 sales estimates

Based on the data collected from public discussion forums, Nio press release we have consolidated  here. 

Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO (NYSE:NIO) said it delivered 3,740 vehicles in June, up 179% from a year ago, a record monthly total that powered a record quarterly total for the company as well. 

What NIO said

Here are the key points from NIO's statement.

  • NIO delivered 2,476 of its five-passenger ES6 SUVs in June, and 1,264 of its larger ES8 models. A year ago, in the ES6's first month of sales, it delivered 413 ES6s and 927 ES8s. 
  • For the second quarter, NIO delivered a total of 10,331 vehicles, up 191% from 3,553 in the second quarter of 2019. 
  • That result was arguably ahead of NIO's guidance. NIO said in May that investors should expect its deliveries to "more than double" in the second quarter from the year-ago period; they nearly tripled. 
  • Year to date through June, NIO delivered 14,169 vehicles. 

Overall NIO deliveries were 11,348 in 2018

Overall NIO deliveries were 20,565 in 2019

2019 Q1: 3,989

2019 Q2: 3,553

2019 Q3: 4,799

2019 Q4: 8,224

Covid-19 hurt NIO's momentum in early 2020

Jan 2020: 1,598

Feb 2020: 707

Mar 2020: 1,533

Apr 2020: 3,155

May 2020: 3,436

June 2020: 3,740

Li Bin has stated that current production capacity is 4,000 per month if supply chains have recovered from Covid-19. I'm going to guess NIO will deliver slightly more than their stated capacity for July and August.

July 2020: 4,150- 5500 (Note:July 18 NIO announced 50,000 cars sold., so July might come 4900 plus sales)

Aug 2020: 4,500-6000

My estimated deliveries to finish out 2020.

Sept 2020: 5,100 

Oct 2020: 5,500 

Nov 2020: 6,000

Dec 2020: 7,500

Data credit: Yahoo finance public forums.

If these estimates turn in to reality, NIO would deliver 48,000 cars in 2020 vs 20,565 in 2019 and 11,348 in 2018.

There are more positive news coming up in August and I am sure the stock will pick up speed and reach $16 by end of August first week. NIO is like investing in Baidu 5 years back, Nio has all the foundation built for it to compete with Tesla in China. Nio should be easily reaching $30 by end of this year. 


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