Friday, July 31, 2020

NIO July 2020 sales estimates

Based on the data collected from public discussion forums, Nio press release we have consolidated  here. 

Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO (NYSE:NIO) said it delivered 3,740 vehicles in June, up 179% from a year ago, a record monthly total that powered a record quarterly total for the company as well. 

What NIO said

Here are the key points from NIO's statement.

  • NIO delivered 2,476 of its five-passenger ES6 SUVs in June, and 1,264 of its larger ES8 models. A year ago, in the ES6's first month of sales, it delivered 413 ES6s and 927 ES8s. 
  • For the second quarter, NIO delivered a total of 10,331 vehicles, up 191% from 3,553 in the second quarter of 2019. 
  • That result was arguably ahead of NIO's guidance. NIO said in May that investors should expect its deliveries to "more than double" in the second quarter from the year-ago period; they nearly tripled. 
  • Year to date through June, NIO delivered 14,169 vehicles. 

Overall NIO deliveries were 11,348 in 2018

Overall NIO deliveries were 20,565 in 2019

2019 Q1: 3,989

2019 Q2: 3,553

2019 Q3: 4,799

2019 Q4: 8,224

Covid-19 hurt NIO's momentum in early 2020

Jan 2020: 1,598

Feb 2020: 707

Mar 2020: 1,533

Apr 2020: 3,155

May 2020: 3,436

June 2020: 3,740

Li Bin has stated that current production capacity is 4,000 per month if supply chains have recovered from Covid-19. I'm going to guess NIO will deliver slightly more than their stated capacity for July and August.

July 2020: 4,150- 5500 (Note:July 18 NIO announced 50,000 cars sold., so July might come 4900 plus sales)

Aug 2020: 4,500-6000

My estimated deliveries to finish out 2020.

Sept 2020: 5,100 

Oct 2020: 5,500 

Nov 2020: 6,000

Dec 2020: 7,500

Data credit: Yahoo finance public forums.

If these estimates turn in to reality, NIO would deliver 48,000 cars in 2020 vs 20,565 in 2019 and 11,348 in 2018.

There are more positive news coming up in August and I am sure the stock will pick up speed and reach $16 by end of August first week. NIO is like investing in Baidu 5 years back, Nio has all the foundation built for it to compete with Tesla in China. Nio should be easily reaching $30 by end of this year. 

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

NIO BaaS is revolutionizing the Electric Vehicle world

Today, cnTechPost reported that NIO (NYSE:NIO) is planning to set up a battery asset management company in August. This move is part of the company’s plan to separate its vehicle and battery units, and should enable NIO to launch a battery-as-a-service (or BaaS) offering. The new company will be led by NIO Energy.

NIO’s battery swap technology
Currently, NIO offers battery swap technology as part of its broader BaaS strategy. This offering allows users to replace their empty batteries for charged ones, eliminating the time needed for charging. The service is currently free for NIO users.

NIO announced in May that it had completed 500,000 battery swaps. This news boosted the company’s and market participants’ confidence that the technology could work. 

NIO’s vision of renting batteries as an individual asset
In January, NIO chairman William Li said, “We consider that the separating consumption of vehicles and batteries based on battery swapping can benefit users through using battery packs that are chargeable, replaceable, updatable and recyclable. Battery will be rented to users an individual asset.”

With time, the initiative should do away with the need of owning a battery. Under the BaaS service, NIO plans to sell cars with the option of not owning the battery. Consumers may also opt to rent batteries, reducing their initial investment in owning a car. The option could also help them stay up to date with improvements in battery technology.

Financing for NIO’s battery asset management company
NIO is currently seeking financing for the company, and could bring in investments from large energy funds. cnTechPost reports that Contemporary Amperex Technology may be interested in investing in the initiative.

What's going with NIO

Chinese premium electric vehicle start-up Nio has seen its stock rally by about 50% in July, driven by strong Q2 delivery figures and a general increase in demand for stocks of EV companies. Below, we take a look at some of the recent developments for NIO.

In early July, NIO published its second-quarter delivery report, indicating that it delivered 10,331 vehicles, marking an increase of 191% year-over-year and about 169% sequentially. The company has benefited from pent-up demand post the Covid-19 related lockdowns, and its total deliveries for the first half of the year now stand at 14,169 cars.

Last week, the company provided more details on its EC6 crossover SUV, noting that it would be priced at RMB 368,000 (about $53,000) before subsidies. The vehicle, which is a coupe-style version of the ES6 mid-sized SUV, will start deliveries this September. However, it will be interesting to see how it fares when Tesla launches the Model Y compact SUV in China in early 2021. While pricing for the made in China Model Y isn’t known yet, we think it’s likely that it will undercut the EC6. For instance, the Model 3 sedan sells for about $41,000 before subsidies in China and the Model Y in the U.S. costs about $4,000 more than the Model 3, indicating that a price of under $50,000 for the base model is quite likely.